Technical and Financial Analysis for a 50MW Wind Farm in Pasni, Balochistan

Given the current power outages in Pakistan, renewable energy is a basic national need and for this purpose determining potentials of alternative energies is important. Purpose of this study is to analyze the technical feasibility of wind power at Pasni, a city of Gwadar district, Balochistan. Financial aspects of a 50 MW wind farm are also determined using Minitab, Stats Graphics, and EViews. Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA) models and Neural Network Back propagation methods are used to forecast the four years real time data of wind speed to explore the power potential. A performance comparison of both forecasting models has been done. A total of 317 different wind turbines of various ratings and distinct heights (60m, 80m and 100m) were examined to select the appropriate turbine. Maximum capacity factor was the analysis criteria for optimum height and model selection of the turbine. RETScreen software was used to validate the results obtained from the study. The results show that maximum capacity factor of 16.2% and annual wind energy production of 72.5 GWh/year was achieved when wind turbine with hub height of 100m was used.