A stochastic response surface method for probabilistic assessment of ATC in wind power integrated system

With the increasing integration of large-scale wind farms, modification of current tools for evaluating and managing power systems such as available transfer capability (ATC) becomes an important issue. This paper presents a computationally accurate and efficient approach based on stochastic response surface method (SRSM) for probabilistic assessment of ATC. The uncertainties of load, wind power and component failure were considered in the model. Polynomial normal transformation combined with orthogonal transformation technique was used to deal with the correlated continuous input random variables with unknown probability distribution functions. The discrete input random variables were simulated by Monte Carlo simulation. The case studies, with the IEEE Reliability Test System, illustrate the advantages of the proposed method that largely reduces the computation burden under the premise of ensuring its accuracy. The results also verify the enhancement of component failure and spatially correlated wind power on the volatility of ATC.