Optimum Nominal Method for the Best Scenario Choice

At a design stage of complex technical systems there is a problem of the best development scenario choice which minimizes emergence of risk situations. For her decision it is offered to use optimum nominal efficiency function. The task is solved in two stages. At first, it is necessary to develop multiple implementations of each scenario. At the second stage it is necessary to carry out several series of pulse modeling, then to group scenarios on pessimistic and optimistic. The introduction of the optimum nominal efficiency function will allow to formalize process of selecting the best evolution scenario in the design stage in fuzzy cognitive models. This function will complement expert methods and selection under the conditions of interval uncertainty and fuzzy basic data.