Forecasting Energy Demand for Microgrids Over Multiple Horizons

Access to electricity is one of the key enablers of socioeconomic development in Sub-Saharan Africa. Microgrid solutions are currently playing an increasing role in providing access to electricity, especially to rural populations whose electricity is not supplied by the national grid. Microgrid developers need to manage their existing sites and expand to new regions. In order for them to manage this expansion effectively and sustainably, they need to make data-driven decisions. Having access to accurate forecasts of electricity demand at the site level is a key input in designing, managing and up-scaling microgrid solutions. Several forecasting mechanisms are proposed for such microgrid developers. Using daily energy consumption data from seven sites operating in Kenya during 2014-2017, it was established that exponential smoothing offers the best out-of-sample forecasting performance with forecast skill exhibited for horizons up to four months ahead.