Optimization of maintenance by failure prediction considering instantaneous and cumulative effects of external environments

We propose a method of determining power equipment renewal by using a method of failure prediction. Renewal is conventionally determined from equipment age by using a bathtub curve. However, it is impossible to make a renewal assessment in accordance with the deterioration level of individual units that are in different environment with the conventional method. It may be possible to renew equipment whose deterioration has not progressed more than its actual aging. Therefore, we propose a method of individually predicting the deterioration level of each unit by considering the instantaneous and cumulative effects of external environment simultaneously. We tested and verified the accuracy of this proposed method using real maintenance data of power equipment and reported the results.