Distribution network rapid supply power capability calculation based on contribution degree stratified sampling

The power supply capacity(PSC) of active distribution system(ADS) is affected by varieties of uncertain factors such as the topology of distribution network, component faults, load level and the volatility of distributed energy resources(DER). In order to quickly obtain the PSC of ADS, this paper first analyzes the factors that affect the medium and long term PSC, and the modeling is carried out; then uses different means to sample to get the representative samples. Furthermore, a series of evaluation indexes are defined for medium and long term PSC to provide necessary guidance for medium and long term market transactions; finally, an improved IEEE 14-node distribution network is used to verify the model and algorithm proposed in this paper through the comparison of traditional Monte Carlo method.