Military technology evolution assessment under growing uncertainty and complexity: Methodological framework for alternative futures

This paper offers a systematic and rigorous methodological framework for alternative futures development under growing uncertainty and complexity. It focuses on the area of military technology evolution with focus on cybernetics and robotic systems. Effectiveness of defense management is significantly constrained by its ability to predict evolution of our strategic environment, assess its impact on decision making and poses thoughtful questions about the possible consequences of current and possible future trends. It can embrace answers to following questions: What armed forces will be needed in the years ahead? What eventualities must we be prepared to contend with? What are our options? In what direction will cybernetics and robotic systems evolve and influence capability development and future conduct of operations? Of course, there are lot more questions we need to answer, albeit the future is uncertain. Obviously, we must be able to adapt our military organizations to the ever evolving environment embracing also technological advances. Alternative futures methodology aspires to become one of the instruments that will help all stakeholder to visualize futures that could plausibly emerge, depending on how current developments continue to evolve.