Standardized risk and the use of lightning hazard forecasting

The international standard on lightning protection offers a framework to describe the risk of lightning damage for a given object to be protected and offers design tools to achieve proper protection with primary or secondary protection. Although it may be useful to improve the usability of this framework by simplifying some points, there is no doubt that the notion of risk and its application is currently covered extensively in the document. However recently more and more papers discuss the use of lightning hazard forecasting in lightning protection. The notion of risk in the international standard is not yet proper to discuss the application of such solutions nor would it be safe to directly use the standard to evaluate a solution like that. This paper aims to discuss the new problem that using forecasting means as opposed to primary or secondary lightning protection. Also it suggests the use of an adaptation of the notion of risk to be able to incorporate the using of forecasting.