"DGM-AMSAA" Model of reliability growth based on the small sample

It is of great significance to the development of the reliability assessment of small-sample weapon equipment. According to the United States Army Materiel Systems Analysis Center (AMSAA) growth model, in this paper, we offer the DGM-AMSAA model of reliability growth for the poor information characteristics of weapon equipment. Firstly, we determine the reliability of the system is increased according to the Laplace test. Then, using the grey DGM (1,1) model to forecast to get the parameter estimation, which is based on DGM-AMSAA model. Finally, based on the Bayes theory, we use the prediction information obtained from the test data of N products as the prior information of a n+1 batch products, therefore, obtains the prior distribution. Combined with a small amount of field test data, we analyses the reliability of the system. A numerical example is given to verify the effectiveness of this method, and provides a new method for system reliability growth evaluation for small sample and poor information.