C/sub 2/H/sub 2/F/sub 2/: case comprehensive hybrid-hybrid forecasting framework

Presents a production and market driven approach to demand forecasting. The authors' system takes advantage of both classical expert systems capabilities and advanced probabilistic reasoning methods. As a result, C/sub 2/H/sub 2/F/sub 2/ provides product managers with a simple and coherent forecasting tool. Users can express their beliefs in a more formal way and modify them to run various scenarios. The authors' system needs now to be fully validated on different products, in order to measure its accuracy versus subjective and purely statistical forecasts. Nevertheless, as a decision support system, the tool has already reached its goal. Product managers are more confident with C/sub 2/H/sub 2/F/sub 2/ forecasts than with real statistical projections, and revise their subjective forecasts, in line with system results. This is due to the fact that C/sub 2/H/sub 2/F/sub 2/ takes into account both what is statistically true and what users guess to be true.