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IEEE Transactions on Systems Science and Cybernetics

Issue 3 • Date Sept. 1968

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Displaying Results 1 - 21 of 21
  • [Table of contents]

    Publication Year: 1968, Page(s): c1
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  • IEEE Systems Science and Cybernetics Group

    Publication Year: 1968, Page(s): c2
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  • Foreword

    Publication Year: 1968, Page(s): 199
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  • A Tutorial Introduction to Decision Theory

    Publication Year: 1968, Page(s):200 - 210
    Cited by:  Papers (36)
    Request permission for commercial reuse | Click to expandAbstract | PDF file iconPDF (2303 KB)

    Decision theory provides a rational framework for choosing between alternative courses of action when the consequences resulting from this choice are imperfectly known. Two streams of thought serve as the foundations: utility theory and the inductive use of probability theory. The intent of this paper is to provide a tutorial introduction to this increasingly important area of systems science. The... View full abstract»

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  • The Foundations of Decision Analysis

    Publication Year: 1968, Page(s):211 - 219
    Cited by:  Papers (86)
    Request permission for commercial reuse | Click to expandAbstract | PDF file iconPDF (1955 KB)

    Decision analysis has emerged from theory to practice to form a discipline for balancing the many factors that bear upon a decision. Unusual features of the discipline are the treatment of uncertainty through subjective probability and of attitude toward risk through utility theory. Capturing the structure of problem relationships occupies a central position; the process can be visualized in a gra... View full abstract»

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  • Decision Analysis in a Corporation

    Publication Year: 1968, Page(s):220 - 226
    Cited by:  Papers (2)
    Request permission for commercial reuse | Click to expandAbstract | PDF file iconPDF (1589 KB)

    The practical advantage of decision analysis is the decomposition of a complex problem into simpler parts that it makes possible. The consequences of a decision can be described in terms of contingent payoffs and then evaluated via independently assessed risk preferences (codified in a utility measure) and likelihood judgments (codified in a probability measure). In principle an (axiomatically con... View full abstract»

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  • Prior Probabilities

    Publication Year: 1968, Page(s):227 - 241
    Cited by:  Papers (633)  |  Patents (1)
    Request permission for commercial reuse | Click to expandAbstract | PDF file iconPDF (3452 KB)

    In decision theory, mathematical analysis shows that once the sampling distribution, loss function, and sample are specified, the only remaining basis for a choice among different admissible decisions lies in the prior probabilities. Therefore, the logical foundations of decision theory cannot be put in fully satisfactory form until the old problem of arbitrariness (sometimes called "subjectivenes... View full abstract»

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  • The Widget Problem Revisited

    Publication Year: 1968, Page(s):241 - 248
    Cited by:  Papers (6)
    Request permission for commercial reuse | Click to expandAbstract | PDF file iconPDF (1264 KB)

    The Jaynes "widget problem" is reviewed as an example of an application of the principle of maximum entropy in the making of decisions. The exact solution yields an unusual probability distribution. The problem illustrates why some kinds of decisions can be made intuitively and accurately, but would be difficult to rationalize without the principle of maximum entropy. View full abstract»

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  • Probabilistic Information Processing Systems: Design and Evaluation

    Publication Year: 1968, Page(s):248 - 265
    Cited by:  Papers (56)
    Request permission for commercial reuse | Click to expandAbstract | PDF file iconPDF (4699 KB)

    A Probabilistic Information Processing System (PIP) uses men and machines in a novel way to perform diagnostic information processing. Men estimate likelihood ratios for each datum and each pair of hypotheses under consideration or a sufficient subset of these pairs. A computer aggregates these estimates by means of Bayes' theorem of probability theory into a posterior distribution that reflects t... View full abstract»

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  • Economic Objectives and Decision Problems

    Publication Year: 1968, Page(s):266 - 270
    Cited by:  Papers (6)
    Request permission for commercial reuse | Click to expandAbstract | PDF file iconPDF (1057 KB)

    This paper surveys some classical decision problems with and without uncertainty. From the survey, it is concluded that the natural generalization of these problems leads to the problem of describing preference orderings over sets of stochastic processes. It is shown that the decision maker can describe a preference ordering of this kind by stating that he is exposed to a risk, represented by a st... View full abstract»

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  • The Consistent Assessment and Fairing of Preference Functions

    Publication Year: 1968, Page(s):270 - 278
    Cited by:  Papers (15)
    Request permission for commercial reuse | Click to expandAbstract | PDF file iconPDF (1896 KB)

    When a decision maker is assessing a preference (utility) function for assets (wealth), it is natural for him to start by making some quantitative assessments of the certainty equivalents of a few simple gambles and some qualitative statements specifying any regions in which he feels risk-averse or risk-seeking and any regions in which he feels decreasingly or increasingly risk-averse or risk-seek... View full abstract»

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  • The Development of a Corporate Risk Policy for Capital Investment Decisions

    Publication Year: 1968, Page(s):279 - 300
    Cited by:  Papers (25)  |  Patents (2)
    Request permission for commercial reuse | Click to expandAbstract | PDF file iconPDF (4030 KB)

    A corporate utility function plays a key role in the application of decision theory. This paper describes how such a utility function was evolved as a risk policy for capital investment decisions. First, 36 corporate executives were interviewed and their risk attitudes were quantified. From the responses of the interviewees, a mathematical function was developed that could reflect each interviewee... View full abstract»

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  • An Abbreviated States of the World Decision Model

    Publication Year: 1968, Page(s):300 - 306
    Request permission for commercial reuse | Click to expandAbstract | PDF file iconPDF (1220 KB)

    Terminal acts and states of the world are specified, but detailed consequences may not be explicitly listed in an abbreviated states model. Axiomatic analyses of this model, with and without experimentation prior to the selection of a terminal act, are presented. In the abbreviated model, state probabilities are not defined, but the analysis is similar in many ways to more specialized models that ... View full abstract»

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  • Memory Limitation and Multistage Decision Processes

    Publication Year: 1968, Page(s):307 - 316
    Cited by:  Papers (12)
    Request permission for commercial reuse | Click to expandAbstract | PDF file iconPDF (1464 KB)

    Sequential decision models have heretofore assumed a full memory decision maker. That is, the model is permitted to retain, to any degree of precision, all information needed to optimize decision performance. This information may include functions or variables that change with observations and thus often implies a decision maker which possesses a large amount of soft (erasable) memory. In simple m... View full abstract»

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  • Bayesian Autoregressive Time Series Analysis

    Publication Year: 1968, Page(s):317 - 324
    Cited by:  Papers (3)  |  Patents (1)
    Request permission for commercial reuse | Click to expandAbstract | PDF file iconPDF (1384 KB)

    Two Bayesian autoregressive time series models for partially observable dynamic processes are presented. In the first model, a general inference procedure is developed for the situation in which k previous values of the time series plus a change error determine the next value. This general model is specialized to an example in which the observational and change errors follow a normal probability l... View full abstract»

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  • The Economic Value of Analysis and Computation

    Publication Year: 1968, Page(s):325 - 332
    Cited by:  Papers (12)
    Request permission for commercial reuse | Click to expandAbstract | PDF file iconPDF (989 KB)

    This paper shows how the decision analysis approach can be used to determine the most economic method of carrying out computations or analyses. A primary decision problem is first formulated to obtain a structure for the analysis. Then several computational or analytical procedures, which can be used to analyze the primary decision problem in greater detail, are evaluated to select the most econom... View full abstract»

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  • A Decision Analysis of Model Selection

    Publication Year: 1968, Page(s):333 - 342
    Cited by:  Papers (3)
    Request permission for commercial reuse | Click to expandAbstract | PDF file iconPDF (1792 KB)

    This paper describes a conceptual framework within which several alternate model forms for a particular process can be considered simultaneously. The development is in decision theoretic terms with the primary emphasis on the setting of a vector of control variables rather than the selection of a model per se. The argument centers about the role of observed data in altering the state of informatio... View full abstract»

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  • Decision Analysis for Product Development

    Publication Year: 1968, Page(s):342 - 354
    Cited by:  Papers (1)
    Request permission for commercial reuse | Click to expandAbstract | PDF file iconPDF (2013 KB)

    The decision analysis described considers four major installation development alternatives upon which management decisions were required. The analysis has a number of phases. The technical-economic system is first modeled deterministically to describe the characteristics of the business. The deterministic model, or expected value business model, is then exercised in a sensitivity phase to determin... View full abstract»

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  • An Application of Decision Theory to a Medical Diagnosis-Treatment Problem

    Publication Year: 1968, Page(s):355 - 362
    Cited by:  Papers (11)
    Request permission for commercial reuse | Click to expandAbstract | PDF file iconPDF (1330 KB)

    The decision faced by a physician when confronted by a patient with an undetermined disease may be simply stated as: "What course of action, in the form of diagnostic tests and/or treatments, should be taken?" In most cases, this problem can be characterized as a sequential decision under uncertainty. Since this is a class of problems for which decision theory has proved a useful tool, it appears ... View full abstract»

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  • Contributors

    Publication Year: 1968, Page(s):363 - 366
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  • Information for authors

    Publication Year: 1968, Page(s): 366b
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