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# IEEE Transactions on Human Factors in Electronics

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Displaying Results 1 - 11 of 11

Publication Year: 1966, Page(s): c1
Cited by:  Papers (3)
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• ### IEEE Human Factors in Electronics Group

Publication Year: 1966, Page(s): c2
| PDF (870 KB)
• ### Introduction

Publication Year: 1966, Page(s):1 - 6
Cited by:  Papers (5)
| PDF (2905 KB)
• ### Conservatism in Complex Probabilistic Inference

Publication Year: 1966, Page(s):7 - 18
Cited by:  Papers (5)
| | PDF (2336 KB)

Subjects were presented with data, described as the simulated output of a computerized radar system, consisting of dots that could fall in any one of twelve sectors. They were told that the process generating the data might be in any one of four mutually exclusive states. Displays showed for each state how likely it was that each dot would fall in each sector; an auxiliary display showed the prior... View full abstract»

• ### Revision of Continuous Subjective Probability Distributions

Publication Year: 1966, Page(s):19 - 22
Cited by:  Papers (1)
| | PDF (784 KB)

Subjects observed sequences of data drawn from binomial populations. After each observation in a data sequence Ss divided the continuum of proportions, from 0 to 1, into three intervals such that each interval was equally likely to contain the population proportion. The boundaries of the subjective intervals were generally quite similar to the corresponding boundaries of the Bayesian posterior dis... View full abstract»

• ### Value as a Determiner of Subjective Probability

Publication Year: 1966, Page(s):22 - 28
Cited by:  Papers (1)
| | PDF (1376 KB)

This study explored the manner in which the desirability of an event influences its judged probability. Ss gave probability estimates for each of 5 events, only one of which could occur. Monetary payoffs, ranging from lose $5 to win$5, were contingent upon which event did occur. Desirability was found to bias probability estimates in a complex manner which varied systematically between Ss and bet... View full abstract»

• ### Accuracy and Consistency in the Revision of Subjective Probabilities

Publication Year: 1966, Page(s):29 - 37
Cited by:  Papers (4)
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Using Bayes' theorem as the normative model, four experiments examined the consistency with which subjective probabilities were revised in light of additional data. Consistency was found to be extremely high under all experimental conditions, and it was shown to be independent of the accuracy of Ss' subjective probabilities; Ss apparently apply a revision rule that is similar to Bayes' theorem to ... View full abstract»

• ### Research on a Simulated Bayesian Information-Processing System

Publication Year: 1966, Page(s):37 - 48
Cited by:  Papers (5)
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This report describes three experiments on Bayesian diagnostic systems. A system simulation facility provides the dynamics of a real-time environment in which the military activities of a fictitious adversary are portrayed. On the basis of intelligence data describing events in this hostile environment, a threat-evaluation team provides diagnoses regarding the threat posed by deployments of hostil... View full abstract»

• ### Studies in Probabilistic Information Processing

Publication Year: 1966, Page(s):49 - 63
Cited by:  Papers (5)
| | PDF (6056 KB)

This paper outlines a theory of Probabilistic Information Processing and describes three experimental studies testing that theory. The theory is based on certain principles of Bayesian statistical decision theory and is designed as an aid to human diagnostic decision-making. The experiments were concerned with certain types of military diagnostic decisions. View full abstract»

• ### Contributors

Publication Year: 1966, Page(s):63 - 64
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• ### Information for authors

Publication Year: 1966, Page(s): 64
| PDF (892 KB)