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Probabilistic Methods Applied to Power Systems, 2008. PMAPS '08. Proceedings of the 10th International Conference on

Date 25-29 May 2008

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  • PMAPS 2008 [Title page]

    Publication Year: 2008, Page(s): i
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  • PMAPS 2008 [Copyright notice]

    Publication Year: 2008, Page(s): ii
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  • PMAPS 2008 Welcome Message

    Publication Year: 2008, Page(s): iii
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  • PMAPS 2008 Committees

    Publication Year: 2008, Page(s): iv
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  • PMAPS 2008 History

    Publication Year: 2008, Page(s):v - vi
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  • PMAPS 2008 Sponsors

    Publication Year: 2008, Page(s): vii
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  • PMAPS 2008 Table of contents

    Publication Year: 2008, Page(s):viii - xiv
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  • PMAPS 2008 author index

    Publication Year: 2008, Page(s):602 - 604
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  • Multivariate Time Series Models Applied to the Assessment of Energy Storage in Power Systems

    Publication Year: 2008, Page(s):1 - 8
    Cited by:  Papers (1)
    IEEE is not the copyright holder of this material | Click to expandAbstract | PDF file iconPDF (526 KB) | HTML iconHTML

    This paper introduces the infeed modeling requirements for investigations on energy storage in power systems with complex spatial dependence structures between stochastic infeeds. It is shown that synthesizing multivariate time series, including correct modeling of persistence and spatial dependence, is crucial for obtaining statistically relevant results. A suited new multivariate time series mod... View full abstract»

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  • Modeling of Spatial Dependence in Wind Power Forecast Uncertainty

    Publication Year: 2008, Page(s):1 - 9
    Cited by:  Papers (5)
    IEEE is not the copyright holder of this material | Click to expandAbstract | PDF file iconPDF (753 KB) | HTML iconHTML

    It is recognized today that short-term (up to 2-3 days ahead) probabilistic forecasts of wind power provide forecast users with a paramount information on the uncertainty of expected wind generation. When considering different areas covering a region, they are produced independently, and thus neglect the interdependence structure of prediction errors, induced by movement of meteorological fronts, ... View full abstract»

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  • Benefits of Stochastic Scheduling for Power Systems with Significant Installed Wind Power

    Publication Year: 2008, Page(s):1 - 7
    IEEE is not the copyright holder of this material | Click to expandAbstract | PDF file iconPDF (225 KB) | HTML iconHTML

    Wind energy on a power system alters the unit commitment and dispatch problem, as it adds a stochastic element due to the uncertainty of wind power forecasts. By explicitly taking into account the stochastic nature of wind power, it is expected that better schedules should be produced, thereby reducing costs on the system. This paper compares a stochastically optimised unit commitment and dispatch... View full abstract»

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  • Simulation of Trading Arrangements Impact on Wind Power Imbalance Costs

    Publication Year: 2008, Page(s):1 - 7
    Cited by:  Papers (1)
    IEEE is not the copyright holder of this material | Click to expandAbstract | PDF file iconPDF (232 KB) | HTML iconHTML

    Uncertain wind power forecasts is a disadvantage in an electricity market where the majority of the trading is performed several hours before the actual delivery. This paper presents a model which can be used to study how changes in the trading arrangement-in particular changing the delay time between closure of the spot market and the delivery period or changing the imbalance pricing system-would... View full abstract»

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  • A Spot-Risk-Based Approach for Addressing Problems of Decision-Making under Uncertainty

    Publication Year: 2008, Page(s):1 - 9
    Cited by:  Papers (1)
    IEEE is not the copyright holder of this material | Click to expandAbstract | PDF file iconPDF (205 KB) | HTML iconHTML

    Considerable research has been devoted on the development of decision-making models suitable for tackling decision problems integrating some amount of uncertainty. However, such approaches are either problem-specific, either too general to suit certain problems. In this paper we propose an approach for performing decision-making under uncertainty suitable for problems in which decisions must be ma... View full abstract»

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  • Cross-Entropy Based Rare-Event Simulation for the Identification of Dangerous Events in Power Systems

    Publication Year: 2008, Page(s):1 - 7
    Cited by:  Papers (6)
    IEEE is not the copyright holder of this material | Click to expandAbstract | PDF file iconPDF (295 KB) | HTML iconHTML

    We propose in this paper a novel approach for identifying rare events that may endanger power system integrity. This approach is inspired by the rare-event simulation literature and, in particular, by the cross-entropy (CE) method for rare- event simulation. We propose a general framework for exploiting the CE method in the context of power system reliability evaluation, when a severity function d... View full abstract»

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  • Combined Adequacy and Static Security Considerations in Transmission System Reinforcement

    Publication Year: 2008, Page(s):1 - 8
    IEEE is not the copyright holder of this material | Click to expandAbstract | PDF file iconPDF (124 KB) | HTML iconHTML

    There is growing interest in designing and applying deterministic techniques that include probabilistic considerations in order to assess increased system stress due to the restructured electricity environment. The overall reliability framework proposed in this paper incorporates the deterministic N-1 criterion in a probabilistic framework, and results in the joint inclusion of both adequacy and s... View full abstract»

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  • Dynamic Security Risk Assessment and Optimization of Power Transmission System

    Publication Year: 2008, Page(s):1 - 6
    IEEE is not the copyright holder of this material | Click to expandAbstract | PDF file iconPDF (386 KB) | HTML iconHTML

    The paper presents a practical dynamic security region (PDSR) based dynamic security risk assessment and optimization model for power transmission system. The cost of comprehensive security control and the influence of uncertainties of power injections are considered in the model of dynamic security risk assessment. The transient stability constraints and uncertainties of power injections can be c... View full abstract»

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  • Electric Power System Multiple Contingencies Analysis Using the Rough Set Theory

    Publication Year: 2008, Page(s):1 - 5
    IEEE is not the copyright holder of this material | Click to expandAbstract | PDF file iconPDF (176 KB) | HTML iconHTML

    In this paper it is proposed an efficient contingency screening and ranking algorithm for assessment and classification of multiple contingencies of an Electric Power System using the Rough Set theory. The developed methodology produces a classification of the system operation in five possible states: normal, alert, emergency, in-extremis and restorative. These different operating states correspon... View full abstract»

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  • Risk Analysis of Distribution Systems Using Value at Risk Methodology

    Publication Year: 2008, Page(s):1 - 8
    IEEE is not the copyright holder of this material | Click to expandAbstract | PDF file iconPDF (768 KB) | HTML iconHTML

    Value at Risk (VaR) is an appropriate method in financial world for evaluating risks. The method measures the losses within a considered time interval and a defined confidence level in actual currency. The simplicity and objectivity of VaR concludes to the idea to apply this method for power systems risk assessment. In this paper the methodology is applied for risk evaluation in the context of ass... View full abstract»

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  • Application of Bayesian Networks in Distribution System Risk Management

    Publication Year: 2008, Page(s):1 - 8
    IEEE is not the copyright holder of this material | Click to expandAbstract | PDF file iconPDF (677 KB) | HTML iconHTML

    There is an increasing trend towards using the concept of risk assessment as an important tool in distribution system asset management. In an ongoing R&D project (RISK DSAM), the main objective is to investigate how information about risk exposure can improve maintenance and reinvestment decisions in an electrical distribution company. As the popularity of Bayesian networks (BN) is increasing,... View full abstract»

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  • Risk Based Decision for Reinvestments in Distribution Systems

    Publication Year: 2008, Page(s):1 - 7
    IEEE is not the copyright holder of this material | Click to expandAbstract | PDF file iconPDF (481 KB) | HTML iconHTML

    This paper illustrates the challenges associated with risk assessment for reinvestments decisions. A holistic framework for risk assessment in electricity distribution systems will be described first and then used to structure the analysis and decision making in a case study concerning cable reinvestment. These decisions are generally multi criteria decisions, including risks related to e.g.; econ... View full abstract»

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  • Review of the Risk Management at a Distribution System Operator

    Publication Year: 2008, Page(s):1 - 8
    IEEE is not the copyright holder of this material | Click to expandAbstract | PDF file iconPDF (137 KB) | HTML iconHTML

    Sweden was re-regulated in 1996 followed by new laws and regulations. These new circumstances have become incentives to adopt more comprehensive and quantitative analysis methods applied on Electrical Distribution Systems (EDS). This paper provides a systematic presentation of the current risk management at a Distribution System Operator (DSO) as an integrated part of the net planning process. The... View full abstract»

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  • Probabilistic Forecasting of Wind Power at the Minute Time-Scale with Markov-Switching Autoregressive Models

    Publication Year: 2008, Page(s):1 - 8
    Cited by:  Papers (1)
    IEEE is not the copyright holder of this material | Click to expandAbstract | PDF file iconPDF (205 KB) | HTML iconHTML

    Better modelling and forecasting of very short-term power fluctuations at large offshore wind farms may significantly enhance control and management strategies of their power output. The paper introduces a new methodology for modelling and forecasting such very short-term fluctuations. The proposed methodology is based on a Markov-switching autoregressive model with time-varying coefficients. An a... View full abstract»

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  • Wind Power Forecasting with Entropy-Based Criteria Algorithms

    Publication Year: 2008, Page(s):1 - 7
    IEEE is not the copyright holder of this material | Click to expandAbstract | PDF file iconPDF (336 KB) | HTML iconHTML

    This paper reports new results in adopting entropy concepts to the training of mappers such as neural networks to perform wind power prediction as a function of wind characteristics (mainly speed and direction) in wind parks connected to a power grid. Renyi's Entropy is combined with a Parzen Windows estimation of the error pdf to form the basis of three criteria (MEE, MCC and MEEF) under which ne... View full abstract»

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  • The Effect of Markov Chain State Size for Synthetic Wind Speed Generation

    Publication Year: 2008, Page(s):1 - 4
    Cited by:  Papers (2)
    IEEE is not the copyright holder of this material | Click to expandAbstract | PDF file iconPDF (383 KB) | HTML iconHTML

    In this study hourly wind speed time series data of Eskisehir region, Turkey have been used for stochastic generation of wind speed data using the transition matrix approach of the Markov chain process. Previous work on synthetic data generation did not focus on the effects of different choices of wind states. In this work, it was observed that increasing the number of states has a significant ben... View full abstract»

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  • Optimal Wind Power Location on Transmission Systems - A Probabilistic Load Flow Approach

    Publication Year: 2008, Page(s):1 - 8
    Cited by:  Papers (3)  |  Patents (1)
    IEEE is not the copyright holder of this material | Click to expandAbstract | PDF file iconPDF (281 KB) | HTML iconHTML

    Renewable energy grid connection is hampered by transmission capacity limitations and public opposition to new transmission development. This paper presents a methodology to find the optimal positions on an existing transmission system network to connect 'firm' wind capacity to reach desired renewable energy penetration targets in a secure, least-cost manner. The methodology accounts for geographi... View full abstract»

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