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1991 Third International Conference on Probabilistic Methods Applied to Electric Power Systems

3-5 Jul 1991

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  • An analytical approach to probabilistic uncertainty and sensitivity analysis [for power systems]

    Publication Year: 1991, Page(s):261 - 266
    IEEE is not the copyright holder of this material | Click to expandAbstract | PDF file iconPDF (264 KB)

    An analytical method, called APUA, to calculate the properties of an algebraic function of random variables in a power system is presented. The principle of the method is briefly described and compared to other techniques. Two examples of application are presented. The results are compared to those given by Monte Carlo simulation and first-order Taylor series. The method seems to give reasonable r... View full abstract»

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  • Third International Conference on Probabilistic Methods Applied to Electric Power Systems (Conf. Proc. No.338)

    Publication Year: 1991
    IEEE is not the copyright holder of this material | Click to expandAbstract | PDF file iconPDF (80 KB)

    The following topics were dealt with: probabilistic methods; reliability evaluation; power system economics; generating systems; harmonics analysis; transmission line design; power system operation; unit outages; power system protection; distribution systems; power plant ratings; industrial plants; maintenance scheduling; power system planning; and overhead power lines View full abstract»

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  • A reliability data base for performance and predictive assessment of electric power systems

    Publication Year: 1991, Page(s):255 - 260
    IEEE is not the copyright holder of this material | Click to expandAbstract | PDF file iconPDF (368 KB)

    The authors present an overview of the CEA reporting procedures for assessing overall power system performance and providing generation, transmission and distribution outage statistics which can be used to predict future performance. The equipment Reliability Information System (ERIS) is presented with particular emphasis on the ability of the system to provide the necessary reliability parameters... View full abstract»

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  • Investigation on the treatment of generating unit outages in probabilistic production simulation

    Publication Year: 1991, Page(s):131 - 136
    IEEE is not the copyright holder of this material | Click to expandAbstract | PDF file iconPDF (320 KB)

    The authors report the results of an investigation on several treatments of generating unit random outages in probabilistic production simulation. An electric utility system with a mix of nuclear, coal, and gas-fired generating units and a peak load of about 5000 MW was used in the investigation. The authors also describe the treatment of the unit random outages, the utility system, simulation res... View full abstract»

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  • A Monte Carlo simulation model for adequacy assessment of multi-area generating systems

    Publication Year: 1991, Page(s):317 - 322
    Cited by:  Papers (6)
    IEEE is not the copyright holder of this material | Click to expandAbstract | PDF file iconPDF (332 KB)

    The authors illustrate a Monte Carlo simulation procedure for adequacy assessment of multi-area generating systems. A sequential approach based on the state residence times of generating units and tie lines is utilized. The model uses the maximum flow algorithm to calculate power interchanges between areas when a load loss situation is found in one or more areas. The duty cycle of peak load units ... View full abstract»

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  • The practical application of life cycle costing to the design of power systems

    Publication Year: 1991, Page(s):6 - 8
    Cited by:  Papers (1)
    IEEE is not the copyright holder of this material | Click to expandAbstract | PDF file iconPDF (176 KB)

    The designer of any new power system-be it generating plant, a transmission re-enforcement or an extension to a distribution system, needs to be confident that the option selected for implementation has been carefully considered against a range of criteria. These criteria are likely to include high reliability, low maintenance and running costs, minimal deleterious effects on current assets and lo... View full abstract»

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  • Computer aided maintenance for distribution lines: an expert system approach of failure risk evaluation

    Publication Year: 1991, Page(s):250 - 254
    IEEE is not the copyright holder of this material | Click to expandAbstract | PDF file iconPDF (288 KB)

    The authors describe an expert system based on electrical network failures risk evaluation. This application is directed to give a sorted list of electrical distribution network components to repair or to renew, given a technological and environmental context for each component. After a presentation of the system, the authors detail the risk evaluation carried out by the expert system and compare ... View full abstract»

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  • Wood pole strength data base for reliability-based design

    Publication Year: 1991, Page(s):108 - 113
    IEEE is not the copyright holder of this material | Click to expandAbstract | PDF file iconPDF (260 KB)

    For the past decade or so, Ontario Hydro has been involved in developing Reliability-Based Design (RBD) methods for the design of transmission and distribution lines. A sound database is essential for the successful application of the RBD design methods. Ontario Hydro's program to develop a database for strength of wood poles is described and the limited data collected to date is statistically ana... View full abstract»

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  • Statistical determination of unit commitment risk level

    Publication Year: 1991, Page(s):127 - 130
    IEEE is not the copyright holder of this material | Click to expandAbstract | PDF file iconPDF (200 KB)

    The authors estimate the unit commitment risk level of a practical generating system using operational reserve assessment methods. The estimated risk level may help the Jordan Electricity Authority in applying a probabilistic reliability constraint when trying to find the optimal solution of the unit commitment problem View full abstract»

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  • A probabilistic approach to the long-term planning of public electricity distribution networks

    Publication Year: 1991, Page(s):311 - 316
    IEEE is not the copyright holder of this material | Click to expandAbstract | PDF file iconPDF (332 KB)

    A new methodology for the long-term planning of public electricity distribution networks is presented, The methods developed take into account both the uncertainties related to the growth of loads and the dynamic nature of the problem. The basic methods used are stochastic dynamic programming and statistical decision analysis. By using the proposed approach, the optimal investment strategy for the... View full abstract»

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  • Probabilistic approaches to transmission line thermal ratings

    Publication Year: 1991, Page(s):191 - 196
    IEEE is not the copyright holder of this material | Click to expandAbstract | PDF file iconPDF (308 KB)

    The utilisation of overhead line ratings enhanced as a result of statistical considerations has brought significant benefits and suggests further enhancements are possible. Weather parameters and, more particularly, derived overhead line current carrying capabilities cannot be represented accurately by `standard' distributions. Differences in weather around the country may permit the enhancement o... View full abstract»

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  • Reliability of vacuum switching equipment

    Publication Year: 1991, Page(s):272 - 277
    IEEE is not the copyright holder of this material | Click to expandAbstract | PDF file iconPDF (296 KB)

    The authors demonstrate new analytical methods for designing and evaluating vacuum switching equipment. The reliability engineering approach achieves higher reliability and reduces production cost. The transition from former experience science to reliability engineering results in economic, safe, and reliable operation of systems that are complicated in structure. Current advanced computer technol... View full abstract»

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  • A classification of failures of the protection

    Publication Year: 1991, Page(s):142 - 146
    Cited by:  Papers (4)
    IEEE is not the copyright holder of this material | Click to expandAbstract | PDF file iconPDF (284 KB)

    The authors look at the different aspects of the reliability of the electricity supply. To find the relations between reliability, protection and design, they propose a classification of failures of the protection. The proposed classification distinguishes between failure of the concept; failure of the model; failure of the setting; and failure of the device View full abstract»

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  • A continuous probability distribution for generating capacity reliability evaluation

    Publication Year: 1991, Page(s):15 - 19
    Cited by:  Papers (1)
    IEEE is not the copyright holder of this material | Click to expandAbstract | PDF file iconPDF (248 KB)

    There are two broad categories of methods for generating capacity reliability evaluation. The traditional approach is based on obtaining generation capacity probability distribution by unit addition algorithms and convolving it with a suitable load model to obtain indices for generation reliability. The alternative approach used approximation of the discrete probability distribution by a continuou... View full abstract»

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  • A probabilistic production cost model with optimization of the loading order

    Publication Year: 1991, Page(s):284 - 289
    IEEE is not the copyright holder of this material | Click to expandAbstract | PDF file iconPDF (344 KB)

    The authors present a new power system probabilistic production cost model developed as a benchmark to establish comparisons with classical production cost models. The importance of the operating constraints and loading order optimization has been emphasized. The impart in the utilization factors of the units, as a consequence of the assumptions made in probabilistic simulation models, has been ev... View full abstract»

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  • A probabilistic theory of lightning incidence with application to overhead line protection

    Publication Year: 1991, Page(s):153 - 156
    IEEE is not the copyright holder of this material | Click to expandAbstract | PDF file iconPDF (164 KB)

    The author looks at direct lightning hits to shield wires and conductors of overhead power lines. The random nature of lightning incidence is analysed using probability theory. Closed form approximate expressions are derived for the rate of back-flashovers and shielding failure flashovers as functions of the critical current and tower geometry View full abstract»

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  • Probabilistic overload assessment in distribution networks

    Publication Year: 1991, Page(s):163 - 168
    IEEE is not the copyright holder of this material | Click to expandAbstract | PDF file iconPDF (356 KB)

    The developed program Pronet is a menu-driven computer program for probabilistic overload assessment of distribution networks. The program combines a deterministic N-1 contingency analysis with a more realistic probabilistic approach, which can save network investments and maintenance costs. The authors describe the method of calculation used for probabilistic overload indices and the used models ... View full abstract»

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  • Probabilistic transformer reserve

    Publication Year: 1991, Page(s):1 - 5
    IEEE is not the copyright holder of this material | Click to expandAbstract | PDF file iconPDF (252 KB)

    The transformer capacity reserve in a substation has been established in the Brazilian utilities by using qualitative criteria like substation size, voltage level and operational experience. This criterion, that can lead to a noneconomic configuration motivated the development of a probabilistic methodology to determine the transformer capacity reserve of substations composed of single-phase and t... View full abstract»

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  • Reliability analysis of industrial electricity supply

    Publication Year: 1991, Page(s):220 - 223
    IEEE is not the copyright holder of this material | Click to expandAbstract | PDF file iconPDF (180 KB)

    The high interruption costs associated with modern industrial plants, calls for a highly reliable electricity supply. In order to weigh installation costs against interruption costs, a quantification of reliability is needed. One of the methods to obtain reliability parameters like expected number of interruptions and duration of interruption is a Monte Carlo simulation. Therefore the power system... View full abstract»

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  • Scheduling of generating units maintenance under uncertainty

    Publication Year: 1991, Page(s):246 - 249
    IEEE is not the copyright holder of this material | Click to expandAbstract | PDF file iconPDF (244 KB)

    In a problem of generating units maintenance scheduling usually both the objective function and constraints are formulated as the linear functions. The author explains how the division of planning horizon into discrete time intervals allows one to solve this optimization problem with the use of linear integer programming methods. The dimension of the problem depends upon the number of generating u... View full abstract»

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  • Load combinations in EHV transmission line design

    Publication Year: 1991, Page(s):103 - 107
    IEEE is not the copyright holder of this material | Click to expandAbstract | PDF file iconPDF (300 KB)

    The authors discuss the results of an analysis undertaken to determine limit states, design wind loads and temperature effects for EHV transmission lines for the South African Electrical Power Authority, Eskom, and presents a framework for extending this approach to safety and security loads. This approach is based on reliability principles, taking into account the likely combination of different ... View full abstract»

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  • A stochastic load model for use in operating reserve evaluation

    Publication Year: 1991, Page(s):123 - 126
    Cited by:  Papers (9)
    IEEE is not the copyright holder of this material | Click to expandAbstract | PDF file iconPDF (208 KB)

    The authors present an analytical model of the short-term load that includes, in addition to the expected load, the expected variation. The variation is important because it is this variation of the load (together with potential unit failures) that causes operational risk. The authors present a general Gaussian stochastic sequence load model; explain why it is a reasonable model; and show how this... View full abstract»

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  • Probabilistic approach of voltage control based on structural aspect of power systems

    Publication Year: 1991, Page(s):208 - 213
    Cited by:  Papers (2)
    IEEE is not the copyright holder of this material | Click to expandAbstract | PDF file iconPDF (356 KB)

    In this paper, the author presents the probabilistic concept of voltage electrical distance, and clearly demonstrates the central role in classification selection of subsystems for voltage control and as a measure of the uncertainty in the voltage variation in proximity to nonmonitored nodes. The author believes that this concept may find application in areas, and further researches are leading to... View full abstract»

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  • The influence of primary energy uncertainties on probabilistic load flow

    Publication Year: 1991, Page(s):305 - 310
    IEEE is not the copyright holder of this material | Click to expandAbstract | PDF file iconPDF (344 KB)

    The authors propose a new set of procedures that integrates primary energy uncertainties and energy operating policies with probabilistic load flow. The reservoir operational strategies are then considered in the assessment of adequacy indices. The proposed methodology is applied to two examples related with the Brazilian power network. Comparisons are made between this approach and the determinis... View full abstract»

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  • Modelling of scheduled maintenance for power system planning

    Publication Year: 1991, Page(s):235 - 240
    IEEE is not the copyright holder of this material | Click to expandAbstract | PDF file iconPDF (340 KB)

    The authors describe the ESCORT maintenance model which produces realistic simulations of numerous operational situations. User interaction is required to obtain a satisfactory set of rules and post-fault limits, but this can give valuable insight into future system operation. Numerical details of unsupplied energy and out of merit costs do not always compare accurately with operational reality, b... View full abstract»

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