Informing and calibrating a multiresolution exploratory analysismodel with high resolution simulation: the interdiction problem as acase history
Davis, P.K.
Bigelow, J.H.
McEver, J.
RAND, Santa Monica, CA;
This paper appears in: Simulation Conference Proceedings, 2000. Winter
Publication Date: 2000
Volume: 1,
On page(s): 316-325 vol.1
Meeting Date: 12/10/2000 - 12/13/2000
Location: Orlando, FL, USA
ISBN: 0-7803-6579-8
References Cited: 14
INSPEC Accession Number: 6839432
Digital Object Identifier: 10.1109/WSC.2000.899734
Current Version Published: 2002-08-06
Abstract
Exploratory analysis uses a low-resolution model for broad survey
work. High-resolution simulation can sometimes be used to inform
development and calibration of such a model. The paper is a case history
of such an effort. The problem at issue was characterizing the
effectiveness, in interdicting an invading army, of long-range precision
fires. After observing puzzling results from high-resolution simulation,
we developed a multiresolution personal computer model called PEM to
explain the phenomena analytically. We then studied the simulation data
in depth to assess, adjust, and calibrate PEM, while at the same time
discovering and accounting for various shortcomings or subtleties of the
high-resolution simulation and data. The resulting PEM model clarified
results and allowed us to explore a wide range of additional
circumstances. It credibly predicted changes in effectiveness over two
orders of magnitude, depending on situational factors involving C4ISR,
maneuver patterns, missile and weapon characteristics, and type of
terrain. The insights gained appear valid and a simplified version of
PEM could be used for scaling adjustments in comprehensive theater-level
models
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