What-if analysis and the illusion of control
Davis, F.D.
Kottemann, J.E.
Remus, W.E.
Michigan Univ., Ann Arbor, MI;
This paper appears in: System Sciences, 1991. Proceedings of the Twenty-Fourth Annual Hawaii International Conference on
Publication Date: 8-11 Jan 1991
Volume: iii,
On page(s): 452-460 vol.3
Meeting Date: 01/08/1991 - 01/11/1991
Location: Kauai, HI, USA
References Cited: 21
INSPEC Accession Number: 4127497
Digital Object Identifier: 10.1109/HICSS.1991.184174
Current Version Published: 2002-08-06
Abstract
The research presented hypothesizes that what-if analysis creates
an `illusion of control' which causes people to overestimate its
effectiveness. The study reported found that what-if analysis improved
performance for about half of the subjects and degraded performance for
the rest in a simulated production scheduling task. However, all
subjects but one reported believing what-if to be beneficial to their
decision performance. Erroneous beliefs persisted in the face of outcome
feedback showing inferior performance when what-if analysis was used. In
light of other research linking user acceptance to users' performance
perceptions, these results indicate the potential for sustained but
dysfunctional use of what-if analysis due to overconfidence
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