Power system reliability assessment based on Large Deviation Theory bounds

The ability of the power system to meet the expected demand is one of the main issues of electricity system reliability assessment. In the case of the load is greater than the generation capacity the system is at risk, not to be able to serve the demand. The most commonly used reliability measure in electricity power systems is the Loss of Load Probability (LOLP). Our paper introduces a new approach to the assessment of reliability of a power system, which is viewed as its ability to meet the capacity limit. More precisely, we give an upper limit on the probability of overconsumption. Our method needs the bottom-up modelling of the aggregate load of a consumption area and two states Markovian Models are shown to be an adequate tool for this purpose.