Aircraft conflict prediction in the presence of a spatially correlated wind field
Jianghai Hu
Prandini, M.
Sastry, S.
Purdue Univ., West Lafayette, IN, USA;
This paper appears in: Intelligent Transportation Systems, IEEE Transactions on
Publication Date: Sept. 2005
Volume: 6,
Issue: 3
On page(s): 326- 340
ISSN: 1524-9050
INSPEC Accession Number: 8567702
Digital Object Identifier: 10.1109/TITS.2005.853699
Current Version Published: 2005-09-06
Abstract
In this paper, the problem of automated aircraft conflict prediction is studied for two-aircraft midair encounters. A model is introduced to predict the aircraft positions along some look-ahead time horizon, during which each aircraft is trying to follow a prescribed flight plan despite the presence of additive wind perturbations to its velocity. A spatial correlation structure is assumed for the wind perturbations such that the closer the two aircraft, the stronger the correlation between the perturbations to their velocities. Using this model, a method is introduced to evaluate the criticality of the encounter situation by estimating the probability of conflict, namely, the probability that the two aircraft come closer than a minimum allowed distance at some time instant during the look-ahead time horizon. The proposed method is based on the introduction of a Markov chain approximation of the stochastic processes modeling the aircraft motions. Several generalizations of the proposed approach are also discussed.
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