System reliability calculation based on the run-time analysis of ladder program

Programmable logic controller (PLC) system, a typical member in the embedded family, is now widely applied in industry. For safety critical PLC systems, reliability is of top significance. However, due to subcomponents’ temporal correlations caused by the run-time execution of embedded ladder programs, the complexity of reliability analysis is greatly increased. In this paper, we propose a novel probabilistic model to analyze reliability of PLC systems, called run-time reliability model (RRM). RRM is automatically constructed based on the structure and run-time execution of the embedded ladder program. Moreover, it is also a dynamic bayesian network (DBN) capturing full dependencies in a PLC system. Then, according to execution semantics of RRM nodes, we present customized conditional probability distribution (CPD) tables to calculate final reliability of the system, with failure probability of every referenced component as refinement. The strength of this model is that not only does it explicitly specify the correlations between run-time execution of embedded software and system components, but also it serves as a computational mechanism for probabilistic inference. Besides, the proposed approach is superior to previous works in both accuracy and efficiency. Compared to monte carlo based simulation, the average error rate of reliability values inferred from RRM model is small.