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Probabilistic performance assessment of wind energy conversion systems

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3 Author(s)
Karaki, S.H. ; Dept. of Electr. Eng. & Comput. Eng., American Univ. of Beirut, Lebanon ; Chedid, R.B. ; Ramadan, R.

This paper describes the development of a general probabilistic model of an autonomous wind energy conversion system (WECS) composed of several wind turbines (wind farm) connected to a load and a battery storage. The proposed technique allows the simulation of wind farms containing identical or different wind turbines types and considers a bidirectional flow of power in and out of the battery. The model is based upon a simple procedure to estimate the joint probability distribution function of the total available wind power and that of the turbines operating modes due to hardware failure. A methodology is also developed to use the proposed model to determine an upper limit on the size of the battery storage required for a given number of turbines to satisfy the load with a certain expected energy not supplied (EENS). The model can also be used to evaluate the energy purchased from or injected to the grid in the case of grid-connected systems

Published in:

Energy Conversion, IEEE Transactions on  (Volume:14 ,  Issue: 2 )