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Future power grids are increasingly complex as they encompass elements such as renewables, storage, consumer options, and smart appliances. While these are likely to exacerbate uncertainties in both supply and demand, the overture of smart grid sensor and communication technologies promises, on the other hand, enhanced visibility and refined controls. Nonetheless, an evolutionary change in the tools used in system analysis is necessary to realize the full potential of the smart grid. This paper outlines a framework for assessing security in the operation planning horizon based on a quantitative risk measure. Value at Risk (VaR) is proposed as a measure of system security and is applied to an illustrative six-bus test system.
Date of Conference: 17-20 Dec. 2011