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In this paper, we discuss the need to predict and alarm upcoming extreme events of the wind power domain, such as a sharp increase in wind power production or safety shut downs of turbines. These predictions are needed as a complement to daily operational wind power predictions to ensure grid stability. As there is no universal definition for these kind of extreme events, we describe important parameters for their definition and factors that influence these parameters. A tool for extreme event predictions, Anemos.Rulez, will be presented, including evaluation results from an application test case.
Date of Conference: 25-28 Sept. 2011