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A weapon target assignment (WTA) model satisfying expected damage probabilities with an ant colony algorithm is proposed. In order to save armament resource and attack the targets effectively, the strategy of the weapon assignment is that the target with greater threat degree has higher priority to be intercepted. The effect of this WTA model is not maximizing the damage probability but satisfying the whole assignment result. Ant colony algorithm has been successfully used in many fields, especially in combination optimization. The ant colony algorithm for this WTA problem is described by analyzing path selection, pheromone update, and tabu table update. The effectiveness of the model and the algorithm is demonstrated with an example.