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Environmental problems such as the atmospheric pollution accidents, water pollution accidents and solid waste pollution accidents had become one of the most notable emergency management problems for our government. In order to find the occurrence and development rules of environmental pollution and destruction accidents, forecast methods are often used. In this paper, a famous prediction model which is known as GM(1,1) model is used in prediction of environmental pollution and destruction accidents that took place in China in recent years. The GM(1,1) models based on the statistical data of these accidents are presented and we use an illustrating example of environmental pollution accident as our case study to test the efficiency and accuracy of the GM(1,1) model. According to the experimental results, the performance of this model is good and it is useful for government to make emergency decisions.
Date of Conference: 8-10 Aug. 2011