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Economic risk analysis about the before and after heightening of Danjiangkou Dam with the Principle of Maximum Entropy (POME)

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3 Author(s)
Li Jiqing ; Sch. of Renewable Energy, North China Electr. Power Univ., Beijing, China ; Xi Ruichao ; Zhang Yushan

Economic risk of project is the largest and most important risk. Along with carrying the Middle Route of the South-to-North Water Diversion Project into execution, how much water to transfer is a controversial problem. Synthetically considering the risk characteristic of the hydraulic engineering benefit for flood control, electricity generation, water supply, irrigation efficiency and annual cost, a model of economic risk analysis is established with the Principle Of Maximum Entropy (POME). It presents comprehensively contrastive analysis on the economic risk about 3 schemes (water transfer of 8.2 × 109 m3, 15 × 109 m3, 22 × 109 m3 respectively) for Middle Route of South-North Water Diversion Project, which will provide some references for the ascertaining of water-transfer volume and determining the base for more detailed risk analysis.

Published in:

Water Resource and Environmental Protection (ISWREP), 2011 International Symposium on  (Volume:4 )

Date of Conference:

20-22 May 2011