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This research mainly explores the lethal factors of patients who receive the surgery of heart valve replacement. In this research the Logistics regressive mathematical model is established on the basis of a large number of clinical data, and the relevant lethal factors in the short-term decease cases can be obtained. Through analysis and comparison of these factors, we found that the main lethal factors in the short-term decease cases are: the ASD in cardiovascular disease, PDA, the cardiac function in grade class III-IV when admission, the duration time of artery block between 61 and 90 minutes, the valvula bicuspidalis ring type being Devega, the postoperative discharging blood between 25% and 35 %, the valvula bicuspidalis leaking after surgery, namely, the patients with above symptoms will have high risks of deaths. And we also have done incomplete difference analysis to the model and test with reamer intercept method to ensure the correctness of the analysis.