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Based on the analyses of city rail traffic passenger flow prediction, characters, and conclusion of common method, the paper put forward that the prediction should improve and modify the flexibility of the traditional method, using the current sources utmost, in order to satisfy the demand of traffic passenger flow prediction. Then, the application of four-stage method prediction was discussed in the paper, based on the study of current method and the combination of the example of Harbin No 1 subway traffic passenger flow prediction. The method was introduced in detail, and the prediction result was presented too. Other conclusions were reported.