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A method of load forecasting for January and February in China

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3 Author(s)
Wang, C. ; Dept. of Electr. Eng., Zhejiang Univ., Hangzhou, China ; Xu, Z. ; Zhu, T.X.

In China, the electricity demand of January and February is significantly different from the other months. If we forecast the load of the two months by traditional methods, there will be large errors, which can lead to adverse conclusions in power system analysis. To solve this problem, a method to forecast the load of the two months is proposed: First, we evaluate the total load of the two months by traditional methods; Second, we calculate the ratio between the load of January and February by an algorithm based on analogy and approximation with manual-adjust; Third, we forecast the load of the two months respectively. In this way, we can eliminate the forecasting error caused by the holiday of Chinese New Year. An actual example shows this method is effective for the load forecasting in January and February.

Published in:

Power Engineering Society General Meeting, 2005. IEEE

Date of Conference:

12-16 June 2005