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A regression-based approach to short-term system load forecasting

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2 Author(s)
Papalexopoulos, A.D. ; Pacific Gas & Electr. Co., San Francisco, CA, USA ; Hesterberg, T.C.

A linear regression-based model for the calculation of short-term system load forecasts is described. The model's most significant aspects fall into the following areas: innovative model building, including accurate holiday modeling by using binary variables and temperature modeling by using heating and cooling degree functions; robust parameter estimation and parameter estimation under heteroskedasticity by using weighted least-squares linear regression techniques; use of `reverse errors-in-variables' techniques to mitigate the effects on load forecasts of potential errors in the explanatory variables; and distinction between time-independent daily peak load forecasts and the maximum of the hourly load forecasts in order to prevent peak forecasts from being negatively biased. The model was tested under a wide variety of conditioning and is shown to produce excellent results

Published in:

Power Systems, IEEE Transactions on  (Volume:5 ,  Issue: 4 )