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Concise method for evaluating the probability distribution of the marginal cost of power generation

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2 Author(s)
Zhang, S.H. ; Dept. of Autom., Shanghai Univ., China ; Li, Y.Z.

In the developing electricity market, many questions on electricity pricing and the risk modelling of forward contracts require the evaluation of the expected value and probability distribution of the short-run marginal cost of power generation at any given time. A concise forecasting method is provided, which is consistent with the definitions of marginal costs and the techniques of probabilistic production costing. The method embodies clear physical concepts, so that it can be easily understood theoretically and computationally realised. A numerical example has been used to test the proposed method

Published in:

Generation, Transmission and Distribution, IEE Proceedings-  (Volume:147 ,  Issue: 3 )