A hidden Markov model with mean reverting characteristics is considered as a model for financial time series, particularly interest rates. The optimal filter for the state of the hidden Markov chain is obtained. A number of auxiliary filters are obtained that enable the parameters of the model to be estimated using the EM algorithm. A simulation study demonstrates the feasibility of this approach
Published in:
Decision and Control, 1999. Proceedings of the 38th IEEE Conference on
(Volume:3
)
Date of Conference: 1999