Two-stage prediction method of typhoon position by fuzzy modeling. Fusion of outline prediction and detailed prediction

The persistency and climatology method (PC method) is well known as a method for prediction of typhoon position based on a time series analysis technique. Since the PC method predicts typhoon position only by its trajectory, the prediction accuracy is not sufficient in the high latitudes around Japan. We propose a 2-stage prediction method of typhoon position that uses the peripheral wind field of the typhoon. The first stage classifies typhoon into a category of 4 outline directions and selects a detailed prediction model corresponding to the category. In the second stage, the detailed model predicts typhoon position by peripheral wind field.