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Two-stage prediction method of typhoon position by fuzzy modeling. Fusion of outline prediction and detailed prediction

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3 Author(s)
Hiraoka, T. ; Fac. of Eng., Kyushu Inst. of Technol., Kitakyushu, Japan ; Maeda, H. ; Ikoma, N.

The persistency and climatology method (PC method) is well known as a method for prediction of typhoon position based on a time series analysis technique. Since the PC method predicts typhoon position only by its trajectory, the prediction accuracy is not sufficient in the high latitudes around Japan. We propose a 2-stage prediction method of typhoon position that uses the peripheral wind field of the typhoon. The first stage classifies typhoon into a category of 4 outline directions and selects a detailed prediction model corresponding to the category. In the second stage, the detailed model predicts typhoon position by peripheral wind field

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Systems, Man, and Cybernetics, 1999. IEEE SMC '99 Conference Proceedings. 1999 IEEE International Conference on  (Volume:6 )

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