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The MPEG-2 Test Model 5 (TM5) algorithm is widely used for bit rate control. In TM5, however, there are two well-known problems: scene change handling problem and non-uniform picture quality problem. This paper presents another problem that is a mismatching problem of the target number of bits and the number of actual coding bits for each picture. In this paper, we propose a new bitrate control algorithm for matching the target and actual coding bits, based on accurate bit estimation.