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Development of an end-use model for analyzing policy options to reduce greenhouse gas emissions

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4 Author(s)
M. Kainuma ; Nat. Inst. for Environ. Studies, Ibaraki, Japan ; Y. Matsuoka ; T. Morita ; G. Hibino

An end-use energy model is presented for assessing policy options to reduce greenhouse gas emissions. This model evaluates the effects of imposing a carbon tax on various carbon-emitting technologies in order to reduce CO2 emissions. It also estimates the effects of a carbon tax in combination with subsidies. The problem can be formulated in terms of two-level mathematical programming. An algorithm is proposed and applied to estimate Japanese CO2 emissions. The conditions under which energy-saving technologies would be selected are analyzed using various carbon tax rates and subsidies, and the reduction of CO2 emissions is calculated based on the introduction of such technologies. It is found that a low carbon tax such as 3000 yen per metric ton of carbon (tC) is insufficient to stabilize CO2 emissions at the 1990 level in Japan, and that a tax of 30000 yen/tC would be necessary. However, the proposed algorithm shows that total emissions in Japan in the year 2000 can be stabilized at the 1990 level with a tax of 3000 yen/tC if the tax revenues are used to subsidize the introduction of energy-saving technologies

Published in:

IEEE Transactions on Systems, Man, and Cybernetics, Part C (Applications and Reviews)  (Volume:29 ,  Issue: 3 )