Broadband access network competition-analysis of technology and market risks

The paper shows how risk methodology developed in the European projects TITAN (Tool for Introduction strategies and Techno-economic evaluation of Access Network) and OPTIMUM (Optimised Network Architectures for multimedia Services) can be applied for evaluation of Various broadband access network upgrade strategies for public network operators (PNOs) and cable operators in a competitive environment in the residential and small business market. The effect of uncertainties in predictions of critical parameters such as demand forecasts, market shares and cost predictions are analysed. The assessed technology options include broadband twisted pair modems, hybrid fibre coax networks and ATM-based passive optical networks. The results show that the uncertainty in the few market parameters contribute relatively more to the uncertainty in the final economic evaluation than the uncertainty in the large number of cost components.