Dynamic system reliability study modeling

This article extends conventional reliability modeling to a comprehensive modeling to cover system dynamic response and plant process response as the consequence of system component failures. The study results indicate the load outages from system dynamic response and process response cannot be neglected-they may have significant contributions to the system load outages. The example system study shows the conventional reliability modeling covers about 50% of total load outages. This modeling provides a more realistic approach. The modeling also considers the component failure rate adjustment for effects of component age and maintenance quality. The modelling, using accumulations of system segment contributions to load outages, is a practical approach for industrial systems. The results of reliability evaluation in terms of load outage indices, segment contributions, and overall system reliability indices, provide valuable information for plant management decision making with respect to return-of-investment in system reliability improvement projects. The reliability modeling can be coordinated with other system planning studies, such as system expansion and redesign, because these studies usually require system load flow, short circuit and transient stability analysis. These studies are usually involved in the evaluations of many alternatives. With the reliability evaluations added into the system planning study, the results will be more valuable for decision making among many alternatives.