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The objective of this paper is to propose a predictive analysis based on MUSCA SEP3 including statistic properties, and to demonstrate the relevance of this approach if compared to real operational results. The method was validated by comparison with ground test results and statistical analyses were applied to in-flight data issued from the ICARE equipment (SAC-C satellite). In an operational context, results show that confidence level SEU-risk is relevant when conventional average calculations are deficient. This is particularly accurate when the solar flare is characterized by medium or low flux level.