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The lifecycle of Bayesian network models developed for Multi-Source Signature assessment of Nuclear Programs

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5 Author(s)
Gastelum, Z.N. ; Pacific Northwest Nat. Lab., Richland, WA, USA ; White, A.M. ; Whitney, P.D. ; Gosink, L.J.
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The Multi-Source Signatures for Nuclear Programs project, part of Pacific Northwest National Laboratory's (PNNL's) Signature Discovery Initiative, seeks to computationally capture expert assessment of multi-type information to assess nuclear activities through a series of Bayesian network (BN) models. Information types may include text, sensor output, imagery, or audio/video files. The BN models incorporate knowledge from a diverse range of information sources to help assess a country's nuclear activities. The models span engineering topic areas, country-level indicators, and facility-specific characteristics. To illustrate the development, calibration, and use of BN models for multi-source assessment, we present a model that predicts a country's likelihood to participate in the international nuclear nonproliferation regime. We validate this model by examining the extent to which the model helps non-experts arrive at conclusions similar to those provided by nuclear proliferation experts. We also describe the PNNL-developed software used throughout the lifecycle of the Bayesian network model development.

Published in:

Intelligence and Security Informatics (ISI), 2013 IEEE International Conference on

Date of Conference:

4-7 June 2013