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In this paper, we introduce a novel just noticeable difference (JND) estimation model based on the unified brain theory, namely the free-energy principle. The existing pixel-based JND models mainly consider the orderly factors and always underestimate the JND threshold of the disorderly region. Recent research indicates that the human visual system (HVS) actively predicts the orderly information and avoids the residual disorderly uncertainty for image perception and understanding. Thus, we suggest that there exists disorderly concealment effect which results in high JND threshold of the disorderly region. Beginning with the Bayesian inference, we deduce an autoregressive model to imitate the active prediction of the HVS. Then, we estimate the disorderly concealment effect for the novel JND model. Experimental results confirm that the proposed JND model outperforms the relevant existing ones. Furthermore, we apply the proposed JND model in image compression, and around 15% of bit rate can be reduced without jeopardizing the perceptual quality.