By Topic

Dynamic generation of event trees for risk modelling of terrorist attacks

Sign In

Cookies must be enabled to login.After enabling cookies , please use refresh or reload or ctrl+f5 on the browser for the login options.

Formats Non-Member Member
$33 $13
Learn how you can qualify for the best price for this item!
Become an IEEE Member or Subscribe to
IEEE Xplore for exclusive pricing!
close button

puzzle piece

IEEE membership options for an individual and IEEE Xplore subscriptions for an organization offer the most affordable access to essential journal articles, conference papers, standards, eBooks, and eLearning courses.

Learn more about:

IEEE membership

IEEE Xplore subscriptions

3 Author(s)
Sonia Toubaline ; Department of Security and Crime Science, University College London, 35 Tavistock Square, WC1H 9EZ, UK ; HervĂ© Borrion ; Tanya Le Sage

Probabilistic risk assessment (PRA) is a method used to identify and evaluate the risk of terrorist attacks in complex technological security systems in order to improve their safety and performance. PRA requires determining the probabilities and consequences of a number of potential scenarios. In this paper, a dynamic generation of event tree to model different hypothetical attack scenarios is proposed. An innovative approach is described to limit the size of this tree, which employs specific truncation rules for retaining only those scenarios with risk estimates above a certain threshold. The proposed method which takes into account the consequences and the probabilities of attack scenarios allows low probability high risk attack to be considered.

Published in:

Homeland Security (HST), 2012 IEEE Conference on Technologies for

Date of Conference:

13-15 Nov. 2012