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Many methods have been proposed in the literature to perform admission control in order to provide a sufficient level of Quality of Service (QoS) to accepted flows. In this paper, we introduce a novel data-driven method based on a time-varying model that we refer to as Knowledge-Based Admission Control solution (KBAC). Our KBAC solution consists of three main stages: (i) collect measurements on the on-going traffic over the communication link; (ii) maintain an up-to-date broad view of the link behavior, and feed it to a Knowledge Plane; (iii) model the observed link behavior by a mono-server queue whose parameters are set automatically and which predicts the expected QoS if a flow requesting admission were to be accepted. Our KBAC solution provides a probabilistic guarantee whose admission threshold is either expressed, as a bounded delay or as a bounded loss rate. We run extensive simulations to assess the behavior of our KBAC solution in the case of a delay threshold. The results show that our KBAC solution leads to a good trade-off between flow performance and resource utilization. This ability stems from the quick and automatic adjustment of its admission policy according to the actual variations on the traffic conditions.