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Most Active Queue Management (AQM) schemes try to stabilize the instantaneous queue length through mapping the congestion measurement into packet drop probability. In this paper we proposed a new AQM scheme called Exact Dropping Probability (EDP) without visible congestion measurement and mapping. It's developed through statistical analysis for a dumbbell topology network. The simulation results demonstrate that EDP can control the instantaneous queue length converging to the desired value under various scenarios. We compare the performance of EDP with other existing AQM schemes like PI, REM and RaQ, and show that EDP has the fastest reactivity and the smallest oscillation.