Modeling the wind power in-feed in Germany by data decomposition and time series analysis

The total wind power in-feed in Germany possesses highly predictable seasonal and diurnal patterns. The stochastic variations of wind power have consistent pseudo-cyclic patterns that are related to oscillations of air-pressure systems. The proposed model can replicate the wind power data with the hourly resolution and of time-span of years. The primary purpose of the model is for market applications such as pricing of forward contracts several years ahead. The results of the model may also be used in applications of power system operation such as reliability analysis, day-ahead scheduling, and hour-ahead scheduling.