Probabilistic Power System Production Simulation Including Large-Scale Wind Farms Based on Available Generation Capacities

In this paper, a calculation methodology of the power system production simulation is proposed. On the one hand, the wind conversion system is simulated as doing in the sequential Monte Carlo simulation. On the other hand, the probability distribution function of the convention units' available capacity is employed during the simulation. The methodology developed in this paper used the chronological load model, which could take account of the intermittency of the wind generation. The presented method has the other important characteristics wherein the correlation of wind speeds and the abandonment of wind generation, which is caused by the requirement of the balance between the load and the generated energy, can be easily considered. The proposed method has a great advantage in computing time compared to the Monte Carlo simulation, as the speediness feature of the analytical method.