The Point Estimate Method Using Third-Order Polynomial Normal Transformation Technique to Solve Probabilistic Power Flow with Correlated Wind Source and Load

Hong's three-point estimate method is an important tool to solve probabilistic power flow. However, the method is not capable of handling the correlated random variables. The wind speed between adjacent wind farms are usually correlated, so the point estimate method must be extended to have the capacity of processing the correlated random variables to solve probabilistic power flow with correlated wind farms. By incorporating third-order polynomial normal transformation technique, this paper extends the Hong's three-point estimate method, allowing it to handle the correlated random variables. And a probabilistic power flow problem with correlated wind power source and load was solved using the proposed method. Results based on a slightly modified IEEE-118 system is presented and compared against those obtained from the Monte Carlo simulation in this paper. Results show that the proposed method is efficient and accurate.