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Estimating the Propagation and Extent of Cascading Line Outages From Utility Data With a Branching Process

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1 Author(s)
Dobson, I. ; Electr. & Comput. Eng. Dept., Iowa State Univ., Ames, IA, USA

Large blackouts typically involve the cascading outage of transmission lines. We estimate from observed utility data how much transmission line outages propagate, and obtain parameters of a probabilistic branching process model of the cascading. The branching process model is then used to predict the distribution of total number of outages for a given number of initial outages. We study how the total number of lines outaged depends on the propagation as the cascade proceeds. The analysis gives a new way to quantify the effect of cascading failure from standard utility line outage data.

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Power Systems, IEEE Transactions on  (Volume:27 ,  Issue: 4 )