By Topic

Dynamic Modeling of Thermal Generation Capacity Investment: Application to Markets With High Wind Penetration

Sign In

Cookies must be enabled to login.After enabling cookies , please use refresh or reload or ctrl+f5 on the browser for the login options.

Formats Non-Member Member
$31 $13
Learn how you can qualify for the best price for this item!
Become an IEEE Member or Subscribe to
IEEE Xplore for exclusive pricing!
close button

puzzle piece

IEEE membership options for an individual and IEEE Xplore subscriptions for an organization offer the most affordable access to essential journal articles, conference papers, standards, eBooks, and eLearning courses.

Learn more about:

IEEE membership

IEEE Xplore subscriptions

3 Author(s)
Eager, D. ; Inst. for Energy Syst., Univ. of Edinburgh, Edinburgh, UK ; Hobbs, B.F. ; Bialek, J.W.

Modeling the dynamics of merchant generation investment in market environments can inform the making of policies whose goals are to promote investment in renewable generation while maintaining security of supply. Such models need to calculate expected output, costs and revenue of thermal generation subject to varying load and random generator outages in a power system with high penetrations of wind. This paper presents a dynamic investment simulation model where the short-term energy market is simulated using probabilistic production costing using the Mix of Normals distribution (MOND) technique to represent residual load (load net of wind output). Price mark-ups due to market power are accounted for. An “energy-only” market setting is used to estimate the economic profitability of investments and forecast the evolution of security of supply. Simulated results for a Great Britain (GB) market case study show a pattern of increased relative security of supply risk during the 2020s. In addition, many new investments can recover their fixed costs only during years in which more frequent supply shortages push energy prices higher.

Published in:

Power Systems, IEEE Transactions on  (Volume:27 ,  Issue: 4 )