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High-power white light-emitting diodes (HPWLEDs) have attracted much attention in the lighting market. However, as one of the highly reliable electronic products which may be not likely to fail under the traditional life test or even accelerated life test, HPWLED's lifetime is difficult to estimate by using traditional reliability assessment techniques. In this paper, the degradation-data-driven method (DDDM), which is based on the general degradation path model, was used to predict the reliability of HPWLED through analyzing the lumen maintenance data collected from the IES LM-80-08 lumen maintenance test standard. The final predicted results showed that much more reliability information (e.g., mean time to failure, confidence interval, reliability function, and so on) and more accurate prediction results could be obtained by DDDM including the approximation method, the analytical method, and the two-stage method compared to the IES TM-21-11 lumen lifetime estimation method. Among all these three methods, the two-stage method produced the highest prediction accuracy.
Device and Materials Reliability, IEEE Transactions on (Volume:12 , Issue: 2 )
Date of Publication: June 2012