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Real option value is determined by a variety of uncertain factors. It is very important to assess the intensity and importance of these factors affecting the real option value for investment decision makers. In this paper, the real option value system is viewed as a grey system and grey relational model (GRM) is employed to analyze the factors affecting the real option value. In order to eliminate the systematic uncertainty, an optimization model is constructed to determine the weighs in GRM. Finally, the effectiveness and practicality of the proposed method is illuminated by an actual case study.
Date of Conference: 17-18 Oct. 2011