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This paper proposes an adaptive HTTP-based video streaming framework for mobile networks using the Scalable Video Coding (SVC) extension to the H.264 standard. We present a method to statistically estimate the channel at the mobile client and use it in our work to adapt the bit rate of the video. The adaptation takes into account both the quality contributions and the probability of successful timely decoding for different video segments. The simulation results show significant improvements in terms of a reduction of playback interruptions and improved perceived quality of service.